Saratoga Springs, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

743
FXUS65 KSLC 031021
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
321 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect valley inversions to continue to be the main
story across northern and central Utah through at least Friday,
with a moderate probability inversion conditions continue into
Saturday or even Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With high pressure firmly entrenched across the
region, the main story will be gradually warming temperatures for
the higher terrain and worsening inversion conditions for the
northern and central valleys.

Expect haze to continue to be prevalent. The Utah Department of
Environmental Quality Air Quality Division is current forecasting
Salt Lake and Davis Counties to degrade to orange/unhealthy for
sensitive groups conditions Tuesday and continue through at least
Wednesday. Other monitored valleys across northern and central
Utah continue to indicate moderate conditions.

Patchy fog will also be possible by late evening across the prone
areas near the bodies of water including the Great Salt Lake as
well as areas like the bottom of the Cache Valley. This trend will
continue each evening into each morning through at least Friday.

Looking at ahead, will a shortwave crossing the Interior West
Friday be enough to either weaken or remove valley inversions?
Well, the 00Z runs are decreasing the likelihood of this
occurring. Looking at 700mb temperatures as a proxy for sufficient
cooling to reduce or break inversions, about 35-40% of members are
showing a sufficiently strong period of mid-level cold air
advection to reduce valley inversions, particularly Ogden and
north by Friday. This is a GEFS heavy solution, with nearly no
members of the EPS present in this solution space. About 60% of
the solutions now bring insufficient cooling to weaken or remove
the valley inversions Friday.

If inversions persist through Friday, the next chance for
improvement will be Sunday, as a stronger cold front moves through
the region. The bulk of solutions, greater than 85%, suggest
sufficient cold air advection to remove valley inversions by
Sunday afternoon.

The other question with the Sunday system is whether this will
bring any precipitation. Current guidance spread is around 50/50
for dry conditions versus around 0.10-0.25, highest in the
mountains Sunday into Monday. Something to watch moving forward.
If this northwest flow, highly amplified to the arctic circle
pattern continues, many systems will be cold, but will struggle
with the continental nature of the airmass to be prolific
precipitation producers.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Hazy skies will persist, with slantwise VIS
reductions into MVFR range early this morning, likely to improve
to VFR during the day before decreasing again overnight. Winds
will remain fairly light, under 7kts through the valid TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Hazy skies will persist
across urban areas, with some locations along the Wasatch Front
dipping into MVFR VIS early this morning. VIS should improve
slightly during the day. Otherwise, largely light and terrain-
driven winds will persist. Isolated areas of fog may develop early
this morning near bodies of water, most likely between 13-16z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity